## Dynamic Programming and Recursion

(Welcome to another harmless post in Conspiracy Thread Fridays.)

Addition is recursion is expressed in the pair of right additive identities.

y’ means successor.

x+0 = x  (right zero identity)

x+y’ = (x+y)’  (right successor identity)

If one is unfamiliar with y’ it means y+1, but this is cheating. We actually define y+1 to mean y’.

Dynamic Programming is a technique that is recursive.  It is for solving optimization problems.  In economics and finance where time is a variable we start at the end time node and work back.  At each stage we solve for the optimal policy at that stage, assuming we follow the optimal policy from the next time node to the end time node.  That optimal policy we already solved for by working backwards.

DP problems are usually quite difficult to solve as formulas.

In portfolio theory, advances were made in the 1960s by Phelps, Hakansson and Merton.

Later improvements were made especially in the 1990s.  One of those was my paper

Dynamic Dynamic Programming Solutions for the Portfolio of Risky Assets is a paper I wrote in 1995 but was never formally published.

Dynamic dynamic-programming solutions for the portfolio of risky assets

Author:
Mark S Tenney

Source:
General Insurance Convention & ASTIN Colloquium 1998

Publication date:
07 October 1998

File:
PDF 649.46 KB

I presented this paper at an actuarial meeting in 1998. They scanned it in and put it on line a few years later.

http://www.actuaries.org.uk/research-and-resources/documents/dynamic-dynamic-programming-solutions-portfolio-risky-assets-0

==

The identical paper but a non scanned version.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=771785

It was however, cited by J. Darrell Duffie in Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory Provisional Manuscript October 5, 1999.

Duffie “dynamic asset pricing theory” “provisional manuscript”

Darrell Duffie “Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory” “provisional manuscript”

(note for websites in .ru (Russia), .cn (China), ua (Ukraine), you are at your own risk on viruses and worms.)

Some websites are Moscow State University Department of Mechanics and Mathematics.

An example is

http://mechmath.org/books/10024

Both in Russia and America there is a close relationship between math departments and intelligence services.   This extends beyond just codes.  Mathematicians are trained in mathematical thinking and logic that makes them useful in deciphering many puzzles.

Another institute in Russia

http://ihtik.lib.ru/_catalog_ihtik.lib.ru_2012.09/data/118942.html

 Duffie D. – Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory (provisional manuscript) (1999)(en).gz 742 504 08.12.2005 5:34:34

This was posted December 8, 2005.

http://www.darrellduffie.com/

Duffie is head of the MIS Committee of the Moody’s board.  This committee has oversight over the MIS unit. That unit makes credit ratings.  In September 2012, it upgraded Russia and at the same time made a downgrade notice on the United States government.  That downgrade notice makes it harder for the US to afford military spending. That in turn means the US has a harder time to threaten a credible military strike on Iran to stop its nuclear program.

Director since October 2008

Darrell Duffie, Ph.D., age 57, is Chairman of the MIS Committee and is a member of the Audit and Governance and Compensation Committees of the Board of Directors. He is the Dean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance at Stanford University Graduate School of Business and has been on the finance faculty at Stanford since receiving his Ph.D. from Stanford in 1984. He has authored books and research articles on topics in finance and related fields. Dr. Duffie is a member of The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Financial Advisory Roundtable, the Banff International Research Station Scientific Advisory Board, the Board of The Pacific Institute of Mathematical Sciences, is a Fellow and member of the Council of the Econometric Society, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Dr. Duffie is a member of the Board of Directors of the American Finance Association and was its President in 2009. Dr. Duffie served as a trustee of iShares Trust and a director of iShares, Inc. from 2008 to 2011.

Truly a resume worth every minute of study by the faculty of Moscow State University assigned to deconstruct it.

http://ir.moodys.com/governance.cfm

Duffie has extensive contacts with the US government.

Darrell Duffie site:.gov

(This easily meets the test of pervasively involved in public affairs.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_figure

(Also Russia thrust Duffie into the public by posting the document on their webpages.   This also applies to others cited in the document who are potential witnesses, potentially aware of, or potentially linked to this.  Russia thrust them into the public by its actions.  The same would apply to those who are authors or cited in other documents Russia has posted on the same websites with the Duffie document.  This means anyone can discuss this.  Others can come forward with their information, insights, or opinions on this subject.  Moreover, Russia by its actions didn’t just give them a right to come forward, but a duty to come forward.  This is particularly so since this is linked to the spread of nuclear know-how and capability which is one of the most important public issues.  Particularly is this so right now with the UN speeches on Iran and official statements from the US government making this one of the highest priority items for the US and the world.  This applies to other countries particularly ones that have signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.  In a moral sense that treaty is binding on all the people in a country and all the citizens in a signatory have the moral duty to come forward with their information.  This applies even more to current or former government employees, current or former employees of international organizations such as IMF and World Bank, recipients of grants, NBER members, organizations such as American Economic Association and American Finance Association, especially current or former officers, and anyone with supervisory authority or influence over a potential witnesses including Ph.D. advisers, faculty hiring committees, promotion and tenure committees, associate editors and referees of journals, reviewers of grant applications for the US government etc.  Moreover, Russia by its actions is intending to thrust all these figures into the public discussion.  Thus Russia has thrust them all into the public, so they can come forward and say what they know even if it is a guess, rumor or they are not sure of its importance.  This is not limited to the United States.  It applies in all countries.  Also thrust into the public by this are those who make or receive nominations for the Nobel Prize or other awards including those by the American Finance Association and American Economics Association.  All involved are thrust into the public.  All can comment on this and bring forward what they know even if a rumor, gossip or opinion.  Russia is using these so they are part of what can be discussed in public.  Promotions and bonuses would work the same way for those bestowing and those receiving.)

A citation in 2007 by other authors to my paper is the following.

==Moody’s Statement on US government downgrade warning September 11, 2012

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-issues-update-on-the-outlook-for-the-US-governments–PR_254944

The MIS unit is the one Duffie sits on the committee supervising it from the outside board.

==

Netanyahu’s speech at UN on Iran’s nuclear program was this last week.

The Atlantic’s take on it.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/bibis-subtext-israel-wont-bomb-iran-before-spring/262984/

Russia has supported the Iran nuclear program and hindered arms control efforts using its extensive capabilities to do so.

Joel Brenner in March 2007 on Russia’s efforts.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/197403-1

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2007/03/30/us_official_says_russia_ramping_up_espionage/

“The Russians are now back at Cold War levels in their efforts against the United States,” he said at an event hosted by the American Bar Association.

(Presumably reflecting information known through March 2007)

Bibi 2 minutes on the bomb diagram.

Moody’s downgrade notice to the US government means that Iran is more likely to ignore US threats at military action.   It puts pressure on the US Congress not to fund a military strike on Iran.  This undermines Bibi’s efforts at the UN.

=

From 2005 to now, the Prime Minister of Iran has been threatening Israel and the West.

Dynamic Programming was invented at the RAND corporation.  Part of our efforts to war game nuclear weapons, espionage and the cold war.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/full-transcript-of-netanyahu-speech-at-un-general-assembly-1.386464

Bibi:

What I told you now is not based on secret information. It’s not based on military intelligence.

This is draft and preliminary.  All content to be restated as speculation, hypotheses or questions.   This is in relation to a fast breaking public story of major importance. Because of this, there may be errors due to hasty preparation.  Comments and corrections welcome.

This is just a post in Conspiracy Thread Fridays.  These are meant as light humor not to be taken seriously.  This post is simply a zany combination with no disrespect meant towards any person.  It is not intended to criticize any person.